Archive for March 2015
23 March 2015
Dear Representative Capps:
I am disappointed that you voted ‘yea’ last Friday on the House resolution calling on President Obama to provide military assistance to the Ukraine:
- It is widely reported, plausible, and probably true that the US, via the CIA, helped instigate the crisis in the first place, actively seeking to separate the Ukraine from the Russian orbit.
- It is further common knowledge that Germany, for its economic gain, is also responsible for instigating the crisis.
- The text of the resolution is fallacious. It implies that whereas a “prosperous Ukraine” is “in the national interest of the United States” that we have some right — if not indeed a moral obligation — to supply military assistance to the Ukraine. Such reasoning is worthy of Machiavelli: it assumes without question that we have a right to make war merely for the sake of promoting our national interest — rather than, as our Founders wished, only to protect our national *security* interests. It is also fallacious to assert that our unquestioned goal should be to help other countries be prosperous — as though material wealth were the purpose of human existence, and that higher values (like peace and friendship) are not our true goals.
- It overlooks the potentially reasonable position that the Ukraine itself is ethnically divided, with the eastern Ukraine being more culturally Russian, and therefore having a valid wish to remain within the Russian sphere.
- We have had enough war, and enough of shipping arms around the world!
- When will the Congress recognize that it is not only possible, but better to cultivate peace rather than to pursue war?
San Luis Obispo
I had a long chat with an NRC statistician to discuss their methods for estimating the probability of a reactor accident. He confirmed what I already knew: no existing statistical methods can accurately predict such events. Rather, their theoretical mathematical models only indicate which parameters, out of hundreds, have the most influence on net risk (sensitivity analysis); but the models do not supply accurate net estimates for the risk of a critical reactor incident.
Bottom line: nobody really knows the probability of a meltdown or major radiation release at Diablo Canyon.
Historical evidence (number of actual reactor failures) might suggest a probability somewhere between 1/100 and 1/500 during its term of operation.
Two revealing quotes:
Kaiser 2012, Empirical Risk Analysis of Severe Reactor Accidents.
time to the next accident among the world’s 441 reactors … is estimated to 11 years.
Raju 2014, Estimating the Risk of Nuclear Accidents
The existing record of accidents … [and] their probability distribution is sufficient to rule out the validity of the industry’s analyses at a very high confidence level.”
A database (Excel spreadsheet format) on all US reactors is here: http://www.globalnucleardata.org/